PIRA Energy Group has said that oil demand growth will improve in the second half of this year with stronger economic growth. In the US, where crude stick draws are expected and with improving product demand, stock builds will continue to decline and ultimately become stock draws in the weeks ahead. In Japan, over the last week, crude runs were marginally changed while crude imports remained low enough to limit the stock build.
- Oil demand growth is expected to improve in the second half of this year.
- Iraq’s crude losses are expected to be made up primarily by Saudi Arabia, but global spare capacity will fall to just 1.4 million bpd.
- Higher crude oil prices are expected due to the drop in spare capacity.
- Looking to 2015, lower Iraq production will again require higher output from Saudi Arabia.
- Refinery margins will be somewhat weaker because of higher crude prices.
- Stock builds will continue to decline and ultimately become stock draws in the weeks ahead.
- Over the past week, total US oil inventories increased.
- The year on year inventory deficit widened to 25 million bbls with all major categories below last year.
- US weekly propane prices strengthened by 1.3%.
- For the second week in a row, the total propane/propylene inventory increase was below 3 million bbls.
- Ethanol prices fell last week as record production during the week ending 13 June outweighed demand, declining inventories and rising corn costs.
- Margins for ethanol manufacture were the lowest since February.
- US ethanol production plummeted to 938 000 bpd from a high of 972 000 bpd during the previous week.
- Crude runs were marginally changed.
- Crude imports remained low enough to limit the stock build to less than 1 million bbls.
- Finished products drew 2.6 million bbls.
- Product demands were all higher, leading to broad based stock draws.
- Refining margins were little changed but still soft.
Adapted from press release by Claira Lloyd
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