Oil market recap: 22nd December figures

For the week ending 22^nd December 2013, PIRA Energy Group expected Brent crude prices to stay strong and noted a decline in US stocks accelerating.

Brent crude prices

• Brent prices are expected to stay strong in the first quarter of 2014 due to tight global demand/supply balances and low inventories.
• Prices will trend lower later in the first quarter as refinery maintenance cuts crude demand and crude supply continues its unrelenting growth in the US.

Europe

• After declines in 2011 and 2012, European gasoline and gasoil/diesel demand appears to be showing some signs of bottoming out.
• European GDP growth is expected to accelerate in 2014 and 2015.
• Increased economic activity will be a plus for non-highway diesel demand. On highway use of diesel is expected to expand.

Japan

• Crude stocks declined due to import increases.
• Japanese gasoline and gasoil demands both eased and both stock levels built slightly.
• Japanese refinery margins eased slightly with lower middle distillate cracks more than offsetting gains in gasoline, naphtha and fuel oil cracks.
• Refinery margins are running just under statistical means.

Latin America, Asia and the USA

• Crude exports from Latin America to Asia are on the increase.
• Latin America crude exports the US are trending lower.
• Some Latin American countries are shifting exports to Asia more aggressively than others.

USA

• Product demand reached 21 million bpd, a new year high.
• Stock decline increased to 12.6 million bbls.
• Total commercial stocks are over 23 million bbls lower than the same time last year.

Venezuela

• Before 2012, Venezuela imported almost no gasoline or diesel from the US.
• Between the beginning of 2012 and September 2013, imports of both averaged 45 million bpd.
• Outages in Venezuelan refineries are a cause of this along with diesel demand for power generation. 

Read the article online at: https://www.hydrocarbonengineering.com/gas-processing/02012014/pira_energy_market_recap_final_2013_02/