According to ‘Five-Year Global Fuels Outlook’, when implemented in 2020 the sulfur cap will lead to a 1.0 million bpd increase in demand for marine gasoil and a 900 000 bpd decline in residual bunker fuel consumption. In response, refiners will raise throughput and leverage existing capacity to meet higher gasoil demand, and in the longer term invest in additional upgrading capacity. The spike in gasoil demand will strengthen gasoil spreads to crude significantly, but weaken gasoline and fuel oil spreads as these markets become oversupplied.
In the publication ESAI Energy also examines changes in global product trade flows through 2023. ESAI Energy analyst, Ian Page, comments: “While the East of Suez middle distillate surplus expands and the regions gasoline balance moves to surplus, the Atlantic basin’s import requirement grows, resulting in a significant increase in East to West product movements”.
Read the article online at: https://www.hydrocarbonengineering.com/clean-fuels/07082018/esai-energy-report-examines-possible-effects-of-imos-sulfur-cap-on-bunker-fuels/