EIA updates forecast amid continued Mideast disruption
The US Energy Information Administration has published its May Short-Term Energy Outlook, reflecting a continued disruption to Middle Eastern oil flows.
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The US Energy Information Administration has published its May Short-Term Energy Outlook, reflecting a continued disruption to Middle Eastern oil flows.
Total energy production in the US increased to a new record of 107 quadrillion British thermal units in 2025, a 3.4% increase from the previous record set in 2024, driven by record high production in natural gas, crude oil, NGPLs, and renewables.
The US exported nearly 50 000 bpd of renewable diesel and other biofuels in 2H25, about 20% of the combined production for those fuels, the US EIA has reported.
Between the week ending March 20 and the week ending April 24, the US DOE released a total of 17.5 million bbl of crude oil from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve, according to the EIA.
Prices for natural gas in Europe and Asia have diverged from those in the US since the 28 February closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the US EIA has reported.
The Dated Brent spot price increased to a premium of more than US$25/bbl compared with the front-month Brent futures contract in early April, the US EIA has reported.
In this report, the EIA examines strategic global oil inventory levels as of December 2025, before the coordinated emergency release following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Annual motor gasoline consumption in the US decreased in 2025 even as vehicle miles travelled increased because of increasing fuel efficiency, a trend the EIA forecast will continue in 2026 and 2027.
Crude oil and petroleum product prices increased significantly in 1Q26, particularly following military action in the Middle East on 28 February and the subsequent de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz, reports the EIA.
The US Energy Information Administration published its April Short-Term Energy Outlook this week, examining the implications of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
In 2025, the US imported an average of 490 000 bpd of crude oil from the Middle East Gulf region – Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, the US EIA has reported.
NGL exports reached 3.1 million bpd in 2025, growing 7% from the previous year, NGL plant production increasing every year since 2005.