Keeping it close to home

While the UK and EU will inevitably rely on some sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) imports, there is a strategic imperative to ensure that at least some production is anchored in Europe. To strengthen European energy security and to ensure the economic benefits of scaling clean infrastructure stay local, incentives such as additional subsidies and revenue certainty mechanisms should prioritise projects that use green energy and waste carbon sourced from within the region instead of those projects which rely on imported feedstocks, intermediates or precursors.

As Europe moves to scale up production of SAF, discussions have emerged around whether importing bio or e-methanol in particular from outside the continent could offer a viable way to meet growing demand at a reasonable cost. The argument hinges on the idea that Europe lacks sufficient feedstock, green energy, and waste carbon to produce both SAF and e-SAF at scale. By importing methanol (CH3OH), Europe could, in theory, bring in waste carbon and renewable energy in liquid form and upgrade it domestically to SAF via the methanol-to-jet (MTJ) process. This process involves converting methanol into short-chain olefins, then upgrading those to longer hydrocarbon chains suitable for jet fuel through oligomerisation.

The challenges of relying on imported methanol

However, this approach presents major challenges. First and foremost, importing methanol does not support European energy security. For Europe to retain control over any part of its aviation fuel supply, it must also retain control over a proportion of the underlying feedstocks. This means that for at least part of its SAF production, both the waste carbon and the energy required to convert it – whether in the form of green hydrogen from renewable electricity, or biohydrogen from waste-derived syngas – must originate within its own borders. Otherwise, Europe risks replicating the vulnerabilities seen with used cooking oil (UCO), where over-reliance on imports, particularly from China, has left domestic producers exposed. If Europe becomes dependent on green methanol imports, it risks losing influence over its supply chain to external players who could upgrade the fuel themselves, restrict exports or redirect supply elsewhere.

There are also significant verification challenges. Ensuring that imported e-methanol meets European standards for green hydrogen production, including additionality, or confirming that biomethanol is genuinely waste-derived rather than fossil-based, requires rigorous monitoring. This is particularly difficult in regions such as China, where coal-based methanol is already widely produced and transparency over production methods is limited. Differentiating methanol made from green, grey, or biohydrogen at scale would be extremely difficult in practice.

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