The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects almost 70 billion ft3 more natural gas to be in US storage at the end of November than it forecast in October. A warm start to the month is easing pressure on natural gas prices.
In its November Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), EIA forecasts more US natural gas in storage throughout this winter, resulting in the Henry Hub natural gas spot price averaging US$2.87 per million Btu from November through March, 16% less over that period than forecast last month.
Other key takeaways from the November STEO include:
Brent crude oil prices: EIA forecasts Brent crude oil spot prices will average US$104/bbl in November and US$99/bbl in December, with Brent averaging US$86/bbl in 2027 as more oil flows from the Middle East and global oil inventories rebuild. Continued shipping disruptions could cause short-term price swings.
Gasoline and diesel prices: EIA expects US retail gasoline and diesel prices to fall in 2027. EIA raised both forecasts from October because it now expects global supplies of refined fuels to remain tight through the end of 2027. EIA forecasts that diesel will average US$5.03/gal., up from US$4.49/gal. in the October forecast, and gasoline will average US$3.73/gal., up from US$3.56/gal.
US oil production and inventories: US commercial crude oil inventories fell to their lowest October level since 2014, as exports rose and imports fell. EIA expects inventories to rise in 2027 as net imports increase and US crude oil production reaches a record 14.3 million bpd.
Liquefied natural gas exports. EIA forecasts US liquefied natural gas gross exports will rise from about 15 billion ft3/d in 2025 to about 19 billion ft3/d in 2027 as new export capacity comes online and existing facilities expand.
