Comment
In this issue of World Pipelines, we publish articles on: the realities of hydrogen pipeline transport; advances in imaging to detect pipeline corrosion; the performance of inline inspection tools; AI and machine learning for subsea pipeline survey; and monitoring of fugitive emissions from pipelines. One common thread among the articles is that they all look towards a future where the energy transition materialises. Each new piece of technology, or modelling, works to support and sustain the pipeline industry as it evolves. ‘Evolves into what?’, I hear you ask. The energy transition as a phrase is generally taken to mean the elimination of fossil fuels. At this year’s ptc Conference in Berlin, keynote speaker Brigham McCown, from the Hudson Institute (USA), asked “Are we in the midst of an ‘energy transition’, an ‘energy expansion’, or both?” Delegates raised hands according to which term appealed to them, and most people thought that ‘both’ was probably fitting. I got the sense that the term ‘expansion’ felt more comfortable for many of the delegates, since it reflected a broadening of the energy sector to encompass new energy sources, rather than a linear trajectory in which oil and gas are completely replaced by renewable sources.
In research published by Rystad Energy in May, Claudio Galimberti, Global Market Analysis Director, reports: “As oil demand is likely to stay on an upward trajectory in the medium term, the probability of a fast transition away from oil decreases unless we witness breakthroughs in those low-carbon energy carriers that can technically and economically substitute oil. Our updated mid-term forecast should bring a dose of realism to the oil transition narrative, alongside a renewed sense of urgency to explore and invest even more – wherever it makes economic sense – in clean tech and renewables, to achieve those breakthroughs”.1
The pace of the energy transition, or the energy expansion, is something that has to be judged and recalibrated all the time. We see the pipeline sector reaching to tackle the new challenges that will come with new types of transport such as CO2 and hydrogen, but we also see it putting much effort into the sustained, safe operation of traditional oil and gas transport.
In what I consider to be a ‘must read’ article on the mining industry (a sector that we cover in our sister magazine Global Mining Review), Nick Bowlin (The Drift magazine, July 2023), explains how the world’s governments are scrambling to secure mineral and metal supplies, for a future in which decarbonisation relies on EVs and renewable energies.2 To quote the article: “As the economic historian Adam Tooze argued in March, [the] suggestion of a smooth shift from one mode to another fails to adequately capture the radical nature of the challenge ahead – the total transformation of global energy production required to address the climate crisis. Coal, gas, and oil still account for more than 60% of humanity’s total electricity generation. These need to be phased out immediately; extant and planned fossil fuel projects are almost certain to push the globe past two degrees Celsius of warming. And new energy sources will need to meet surging global electricity demand, which is expected to double, at minimum, in the coming decades. ‘The wholesale displacement of fossil fuels across global electricity generation, with overall capacity expanded to twice its current size, in the space of a single generation, will be a truly staggering undertaking,’ Tooze writes.”2 I’ll take ‘expansion’ over ‘displacement’ to meet this lofty goal.
- https://www.rystadenergy.com/news/stronger-for-longer-oil-demand-to-grow-in-the-mid-term-future
- https://www.thedriftmag.com/a-good-prospect
