The year 2025 has been turbulent; tariffs, regional conflict, geopolitical tensions, and the advent of key policy implementations have all impacted the fertilizer industry. In 2025 we witnessed price hikes for different mineral and chemical fertilizers after the Trump Administration implemented tariffs in April; the start of the year also saw the EU announce its new Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) which will be implemented from the 1 January 2026. These developments alone have been enough to create the kind of uncertainty and speculation often seen when industries are on the precipice of massive change.
Now, the new US Administration’s trade policies have been largely characterised by the implementation of sweeping tariffs across multiple major sectors with the fertilizer industry seeing most fertilizer exporting countries, with the exception of Russia, facing tariffs of 10 - 15%; some suppliers were struck with tariffs upwards of 30%.1 Global prices on fertilizers increased and several countries began avoiding the US, instead favouring alternative destinations for their supplies. However, it seems that the US Administration has felt the impact of this decision as Executive Order 14257 was modified in November with urea, ammonium nitrate, ammonium sulfate, UAN, TSP, DAP, and MAP all becoming exempt from the tariffs.1 With luck, this will inject renewed optimism into the industry and see prices stabilise, improving fertilizer affordability.
Another contributing factor to the shifts in fertilizer trade has been Russia’s war with Ukraine. Russia is one of the largest producers of fertilizers in the world, producing over 48 million tpy.2 Much of Europe has had to look elsewhere for its fertilizer supply. As the war looks to continue into 2026 the industry has been forced to weather the shocks created by these changes. Even if the war does end, it remains to be seen if NATO and the EU lift the trade embargos placed on Russia and accept imports of Russian fertilizer once again.
However, before that happens, the EU has one major change that is right around the corner. Across Europe the fertilizer industry is preparing for the imminent implementation of the CBAM which could have consequences for the entire value chain. The new mechanism acts as a carbon tariff which will see EU businesses having to declare and subsequently pay the cost for the associated carbon emissions.3 The move is meant to encourage further decarbonisation with the cost expected to rise to €140/t CO2e by 2030.4 There are those who deem this to be counter-intuitive however; groups like the Irish Co-operative Organisation Society (ICOS) are calling for this new carbon-based tax on EU imports of fertilizer to be postponed.5
Even with all these changes on the horizon in 2026 the future is still bright. More projects are being commissioned for fertilizer production across the world and more partnerships and alliances are being forged. Some of these projects are even looking at sustainable methods of production using ammonia. Despite the turbulent year the fertilizer sector will bounce back from these challenging times and the market will inevitably adapt.
