The EIA reports that average monthly prices for regular-grade retail gasoline in the US could increase by more than 10 cents per gal. if refinery output is lower than expected.
Across the US, the EIA forecasts that retail gasoline prices will average near US$3.70 per gal. from April through September 2024, which is similar to prices during the same period in 2023. Refinery operations are a source of uncertainty for gasoline markets this summer.
The EIA also expects voluntary OPEC+ crude oil production cuts and ongoing geopolitical risks will keep the Brent crude oil spot price near US$90/bbl for the remainder of 2024 before falling to an average of US$85/bbl in 2025 as global oil production growth picks up.