Global oil prices
EIA expect global oil inventories to continue to rise through 2026, putting downward pressure on oil prices in the coming months. It forecasts that the Brent crude oil price will fall to an average of US$55/bbl in 1Q26 and remain near that price for the rest of next year. Although the EIA expects crude oil prices to continue to fall in the coming months, it assesses that both the OPEC+ production policy and China’s continued inventory builds will limit price declines.
Natural gas prices
The Henry Hub natural gas spot price in the forecast rises to an average of almost US$4.30 per million Btu this winter (November - March), more than US¢40 cents per million Btu higher than forecasted in the November STEO. The revision is driven primarily by colder-than-expected weather in December which the EIA expects will increase space heating demand. However, milder-than-normal weather is expected in early 2026 and rising production will help moderate natural gas prices following the winter, with the Henry Hub price averaging about US$4 per million Btu in 2026.