A combination of lower petroleum output from Mexico and lower fuel prices, particularly for petroleum products that make up the bulk of the cross-border energy trade between the two countries, drove most of the decrease.
Energy trade value represents the total value of energy imports and exports between two countries and is driven by commodity volumes and prices. Most of the energy trade value between the US and Mexico comes from US exports of refined petroleum products to Mexico – US$37 billion in 2024 – which accounted for 64% of the total energy value traded between the two countries.
The inflation-adjusted value of all US energy exports to Mexico declined by 13% in 2024 from a year earlier to US$41 billion, falling by less than the previous annual decline of 24% from 2022 to 2023. The annual change was even larger for energy trade in the opposite direction: the inflation-adjusted value of all energy imports from Mexico to the US decreased by 34% in 2024 to US$16 billion, primarily from less imported crude oil, according to data from the US Census Bureau, which has been collecting this type of data since 1996.
Crude oil
In 2024, the US imported less crude oil from Mexico and paid less per bbl than in 2023. US crude oil imports from Mexico averaged 464 000 bpd in 2024, 37% less than in 2023, driven in part by falling productivity from oil resources in Mexico as US refiners sought substitutes. Global crude oil prices declined slightly in 2024, with the Brent crude oil spot price averaging US$81/bbl, compared with US$82/bbl in 2023. Combined with lower crude oil import volumes, lower crude oil prices reduced the value of US crude oil imports from Mexico by 40% in 2024 compared with 2023. Crude oil imports made up 75% of all US energy imports from Mexico in 2024. The US has not exported any crude oil to Mexico since 2019.
More recently, it appears the rate of crude oil imports into the US from Mexico has continued to slow. Through the 1H25, US crude oil imports from Mexico have averaged 409 000 bpd, which is 17% lower than the average for the same period in 2024. Although Mexico’s energy exports to the US are subject to a 10% tariff as of 6 March 2025, most crude oil imports from Mexico are likely exempt because they qualify for the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement preference. So, the drop in crude oil imports from Mexico is likely due to the continued decline of crude oil production from Mexico’s existing oil fields and limited production growth from the development of new resources.
Petroleum products
In 2024, Mexico was the largest export market for US petroleum products. Mexico has an ageing refinery system and struggles to maintain the output needed to satisfy its domestic petroleum product demand. As a result, Mexico imports US petroleum products such as gasoline, diesel fuel, and propane. US petroleum product exports to Mexico averaged 1.2 million bpd in 2024, essentially flat compared with 2023. The inflation-adjusted value of US petroleum product exports to Mexico decreased by 10%, dropping to US$37 billion in 2024 from US$41 billion in 2023, due to lower prices for petroleum products.
Natural gas
Natural gas trade mostly consists of pipeline shipments from the US to Mexico. The US exported a record amount of natural gas to the world in 2024: 21.0 billion ft3/d, up slightly from the 20.8 billion ft3/d exported in 2023, the previous record. US natural gas exports to Mexico increased by 4% in 2024, reaching an average of 6.4 billion ft3/d. US natural gas exports to Mexico represented 10% of the value of US energy exports to Mexico for the year. Due to lower prices, the trade value of natural gas in 2024 decreased by 31% from 2023 to US$4.2 billion.
Through the 1H25, US exports of natural gas to Mexico have continued to accelerate, averaging 6.6 billion ft3/d, up 5% compared with the same period in 2024. In addition, significant expansions of LNG export capacity are underway in North America, including projects in Mexico that will use natural gas sourced from the US. The US was the world’s largest LNG exporter in 2024, and these projects are poised to add significant new export capacity through 2028.