On 13 May 2026, EIA will release a new energy security dataset, which will be published quarterly, with information on global strategic petroleum reserves and flows through key shipping chokepoints for petroleum and LNG. This new dataset will typically be published separately from the primary STEO release, based on the availability of underlying datasets necessary for the analysis.
"The timing of resumed oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz and the subsequent rate at which Middle Eastern producers restore output are key factors influencing EIA's price forecast through year end," EIA Administrator Tristan Abbey said. "Our new datasets tracking global strategic stocks and shipping chokepoints for petroleum and gas markets will offer timely context and additional depth."
US energy market indicators
- OPEC: the UAE left OPEC on 1 May 2026. Beginning with this STEO, UAE production figures will no longer be included in OPEC totals for historical or forecast periods in this outlook.
- Global oil production: an estimated 10.5 million bpd of crude oil production from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE, Qatar, and Bahrain were collectively shut in last month. EIA’s forecast assumes the Strait of Hormuz will remain effectively closed through late May, with traffic gradually resuming in June and shipments returning to pre-conflict levels later in the year.
- Crude oil price forecast: Brent crude oil spot prices rose in April, reaching US$138/bbl on 7 April and averaging US$117/bbl for the month on the back of reduced global oil supplies. EIA expects global oil inventories to fall by an average of 8.5 million bpd in 2Q26, keeping Brent near US$106/bbbl in May and June.
- Retail gasoline and diesel prices: retail gasoline prices are forecast to average US$3.88/gal. in 2026 and US$3.62/gal. in 2027.
- Propane inventories: US propane inventories reached record highs in 2025 and are expected to stay above average through 2026 as supply growth outpaces demand. US propane exports will likely increase through 2027, partly as buyers in Asia replace supply from the Middle East.
- LNG exports: US LNG export capacity increased by about 0.9 billion ft3/d in April as capacity expanded.
- Natural gas production: US marketed natural gas production averaged 120.2 billion ft3/d in 1Q26, up 4% more than the same period last year. Output is expected to keep rising through 2027, supported by associated gas linked to high crude oil prices.