The US and Israel launched surprise missile strikes on Iran on 28 February 2026, prompting retaliation across the Arab Gulf and heightening fears of a broader regional conflict. With tensions centred on the Strait of Hormuz, a key energy chokepoint, global oil, LNG, and chemical supplies are under threat.
ICIS experts report that Brent crude surged more than 8% in early Asian trade on 2 March, briefly exceeding US$82/bbl before easing back above US$78, while WTI traded around US$72. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has effectively halted, bringing Gulf oil and LNG exports close to a standstill. LNG tanker crossings have stopped since 28 February, disrupting around 120 billion m3/y of supply from Qatar and the UAE, a volume comparable to the gas Europe has lost from Russia since 2021.
Petrochemical markets have also reacted, with China’s methanol futures rising more than 6% amid concerns over Iranian supply. Iran is the world’s second largest methanol producer. ICIS analysis highlights that the risk of prolonged Iranian disruption and potential closure of the strait is reshaping market expectations and pricing behaviour, with Brent potentially approaching or exceeding US$100/bbl if the closure persists, although renewed US Iran talks could limit further gains.
The strikes, which reportedly killed Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, came amid recent nuclear negotiations in Geneva, adding to already elevated crude prices and heightening uncertainty across global energy and chemical markets.
A potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz following the joint US Israel strikes on Iran could drive a sharp rise in European gas prices, according to ICIS modelling. Using its Gas Foresight model, ICIS assessed a three month blockade scenario that assumes an immediate halt to contracted Qatari LNG deliveries to Europe and a 131 TWh reduction in spot volumes. Under this scenario, the Dutch TTF front month price could climb above €90/MWh, compared with just under €32/MWh at Friday’s close (27 February 2026), with average prices during the disruption projected at around €86/MWh.
QatarEnergy has suspended LNG production at the world’s largest export facility following military attacks, significantly escalating the crisis. As a result, European gas prices have surged 48% since Friday, according to the ICIS TTF front-month benchmark.
On 2 March 2026, the ICIS TTF Early Day assessment for April 2026 stood at US$13.94/million Btu, up 26% from the previous close, before climbing a further 20% in volatile trading after confirmation of the production halt.
Meanwhile, no LNG vessels have transited the Strait of Hormuz since 28 February, effectively cutting off around 20% of global LNG supply. Although there is no formal blockade, tankers remain anchored due to heightened security and insurance risks, intensifying supply concerns.
Oil markets have also reacted, with Brent crude rising more than 10%. However, prices do not yet reflect a full structural supply shock, given the previously well-supplied global oil market.
Europe imports a relatively small share of its LNG directly from Qatar, but Asia’s dependence is much greater. This is likely to increase competition for flexible LNG cargoes and drive global prices higher. European storage levels, at 30% at the start of February, add to vulnerability ahead of the summer refill season. If disruption persists into the second quarter, further upside in gas and potentially oil prices remains possible, particularly if shipping disruptions and insurance constraints continue to limit flows.