RINs are credits generated when biofuels are produced or imported and are used to comply with the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) programme. Under the RFS, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) sets annual renewable volume obligations (RVOs) for the minimum volume of biofuels that must enter the US fuel supply. Obligated parties – petroleum refiners and motor gasoline and diesel importers – comply either by blending biofuels into petroleum-based fuels or by purchasing RIN credits.
As of 4 June, biomass-based diesel (D4) RINs traded at US$2.41 and ethanol (D6) RINs traded at US$2.37, both close to their all-time highs set in 2021. Because one gallon generates 1.5 RINs for biodiesel and 1.6 RINs to 1.7 RINs for renewable diesel, these fuels currently generate more than US$3.50/gal. of credits. A gallon of fuel ethanol generates 1.0 credit.
RIN prices increased in 2026 primarily because of higher blending mandates. On 27 March, the EPA announced the final RFS rule for 2026 and 2027, establishing significantly higher RVOs than in 2025. RIN prices increase with high RVOs to reflect the higher profit margins biofuel producers need as incentive to produce enough fuel to meet mandates.
Higher prices for petroleum products make fuel ethanol relatively more attractive to blend into gasoline. Relative to motor gasoline prices, the US Gulf Coast fuel ethanol price, adjusted for energy equivalence, has been lower most days since mid-March. The higher RIN value that blenders using ethanol can then sell on the open market to companies that need to remain in compliance also incentivises more blending into gasoline. The fuel ethanol discount to gasoline has been more than US$2/gal. in May and June when adding in the higher RIN value.
High RIN values have also supported production and blending margins for biodiesel and renewable diesel. The difference between soybean oil and heating oil prices, the Bean Oil-Heating Oil (BOHO) spread, reflects the profitability of blending biodiesel and renewable diesel without incentives. Typically, RIN prices move with the BOHO spread to maintain margins. However, when RIN values increase relative to the BOHO spread, as they have done in 2026, profit margins for producing biodiesel and renewable diesel generally improve. The rapid increase in RIN values relative to the BOHO spread in 2026 suggests that the new RVOs are a significant driver of increased RIN values and that biodiesel and renewable diesel production margins are much higher than in 2025.
The EIA forecast record-high production of fuel ethanol and renewable diesel in 2026 because of high blend mandates, high gasoline and diesel prices, and increasing production capacity at biofuel plants. Biodiesel production also increases, although it is forecast to remain below record highs because of lost production capacity. Fuel ethanol production increases by 2% in 2026, with the fuel ethanol share of motor gasoline consumption at 10.7%, compared with 10.5% in 2025. Renewable diesel production increases 24% and biodiesel production increases 41% in 2026, compared with 2025. EIA also forecast production of all three fuels to increase further in 2027, when the RVO increases further.