According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global oil supply inched up by 350 000 bpd in October to 94.2 million bpd, with total supply 2.7 million bpd more than a year earlier as higher year on year OPEC production added to non-OPEC supply growth of 1.8 million bpd. Month on month OPEC output eased 150 000 bpd in October, to 30.6 million bpd, but remained well above the organisation’s official 30 million bpd supply target for a sixth month running. The group’s ministers meet on 27 November against the backdrop of a 30% price decline since they last gathered. Non-OPEC production growth is forecast to ease 1.3 million bpd for 2015.
Global oil demand estimates for 2014 and 2016 were unchanged from the October Oil Market Report (OMR), at 92.4 million bpd and 93.6 million bpd, respectively. Projected growth will increase from a five year annual low of 680 000 bpd in 2014 to an estimated 1.1 million bpd next year as the macroeconomic backdrop is expected to improve.
OECD industry oil stocks built counter seasonally by 12.6 million bbls in September. Their deficit versus average levels, after ballooning earlier this year, fell to its narrowest sine April 2013. Preliminary data show that despite a 4.2 million bbls draw, stocks swung into a surplus to average levels in October for the first time since March 2013.
Adapted from a press release by Emma McAleavey