PIRA Energy Group have said that a large part of Libya’s potential return has been priced in to global oil markets. Also, the largest US crude stock draw of the year has pulled overall inventories lower.
Libya
- PIRA are unsure if Libya will restart exports on Sunday 22nd December or if it will be another false start. But signs for a restart are more encouraging than on previous occasions.
- Oil markets have already priced in anticipation of a return.
USA
- Crude stock fell as refiners continued to run at summer peak levels to take advantage of margins.
- Domestic crude production was also reduced by the cold weather.
- The overall stock decline expanded the stock deficit to last year by over 10 million bbls.
- Propane storage is expected to end the year at well over 10 year lows.
- Propane stocks are being pulled lower by exports, modest petchem feed usage and the coldest weather in years.
- Ethane and butane are the preferred steam cracker feedstocks.
- International LPG markets are reportedly awaiting the arrival of imports from the US and West Africa.
Japan
- Runs have continued to rise post turnaround but crude imports have moved higher resulting in a strong crude stock build.
- Gasoline demand has remained strong and gasoline demand has grown to an extremely high level with a stock draw on both gasoline and gasoil.
- Refinery margins increased on the week.
Adapted from press release by Claira Lloyd