Malaysia
BMI has labelled Malaysia a stable oil and gas producer and the country is expected to see an increase in gas production over crude oil. The completion of the RAPID project in the country is anticipated, however, BMI has said that it will face high competition from regional peers.
The LNG market in Malaysia, according to BMI is expected to come under pressure from new regional LNG markets such as PNG, Australia and global players such as the US. However, these will not detract from the country’s regional importance in the near future.
Oil consumption is expected to continue on an upward trend, but fuel subsidy cuts are expected to impact the rate of oil demand growth. When it comes to the refining sector, the outlook, according to BMI remains challenging as there is growing regional competition within Asia’s oil demand market.
Papua New Guinea
Following great excitement, the first cargo from PNG LNG has been delivered. BMI has reported that two more developments for LNG are being spear headed by Osaka Gas and Total and they are expected to be active within the next 10 years. Also, BMI has forecast an increase in oil production on the back of increased condensate output in the country.
Taking a closer look at ExxonMobil’s PNG LNG, the first cargo from train 1 has been sent to Japan’s TEPCO. This was done in June after the project was brought online ahead of schedule. Train 2 of the project is also now running at full capacity. By 2018, BMI predict that production growth of natural gas is to increase to 14.8 billion m3 due to PNG LNG and other anticipated LNG projects. There is currently talk of a third train being developed for PNG LNG, according to BMI, however, this will be linked, most likely to the success of the P’nyang field.
Singapore
BMI expects Singapore to remain a key oil hub for the global market and will become the region’s gas trade hub as well by 2023. LNG is expected to overtake pipeline gas as the key import from Malaysia and Indonesia, according to BMI, as it becomes Singapore’s dominant source of gas. Refining is expected to remain significant in the country, however it will begin facing competition from emerging markets for regional oil products.
The refining sector in the country will keep crude oil imports high, however, BMI has said that it is exposed to the Middle East as 90% of its oil requirements come from the region. BMI anticipates that Iran will find it difficult to regain a foothold in Singapore’s import market once sanctions are lifted, as the supply gap left was filled easily by Angola and Russia. Condensate imports are expected to increase, according to BMI as more condensate refineries come online in the country. Yet, despite increased competition in the refining market from China and Vietnam, BMI expects Singapore to remain an important global and regional refining hub.
Looking at gas, BMI sees gas consumption to increase as well as gas imports. Gas import levels are in fact expected to double by 2023, supported by the expansion in LNG import capacity.
Adapted from report briefs by Claira Lloyd.