Despite the current tough economic conditions that are still impacting Europe, world refinery throughput will increase as global demand for gasoline, jet kerosene, gasoil and diesel products rises during Q3 2013. The above is stated in a new report from GlobalData which states that in Q3 2013, gasoline demand will increase by 325 000 bpd over Q2 figures, while gasoil and diesel demand will rise by 280 000 bpd.
Jet kerosene will also rise qoq by 150 000 bpd and global refinery throughputs are expected to grow by 2.2 million bpd over the previous quarter as new atmospheric distillation capacity comes online in the Middle East, India and China. Due to the increases, total global throughput will reach levels of 77 million bpd, the highest level in five years.
2014 global oil market predictions
Throughput growth is expected to continue in 2014 with gasoline demand rising by another 115 000 bpd over 2013 levels, and diesel and gasoil rising by 525 000 bpd.
‘Despite the positive outlook, these figures will be limited by various underlying economic issues, not least of all the European recession. The slowdown in Chinese demand and the rapid decline in Indian demand are also contributing factors. The US is the only country showing any signs of pushing through its economic woes,’ said Jeffrey Kerr, GlobalData’s managing analyst for downstream oil and gas.
During 2014 jet kerosene can expect to see a drop of 55 000 bpd, as a result of a decrease in air travel fuelled by the recession and the Chinese economic slowdown, while refinery throughput will see a similar reduction of 57 000 bpd.
‘The key for the global economy moving forward is which of these trends are the strongest; the US moving higher or the rest of the world moving lower, and currently it seems that the refined products markets are supporting the US position,’ concluded Kerr.