BP project that Africa will experience the world’s fastest regional energy demand growth, driven by urbanisation, rising populations, and strong GDP growth. The company also believes that Africa will remain a significant exporter of oil and gas. Below are a few reasons why:
- In 2035, Africa will have 21% of the world’s population compared to 15% today. The region will also account for 44% of the global increase.
- Energy demand is projected to grow by 93% between today and 2035, much faster than the global average of 41%. However, African demand will make up just 4% of the global total.
- Fossil fuels will account for 86% of demand in 2035 with natural gas and oil both expanding at 109% and 69% respectively.
- Oil remains the dominant fuel flowed by gas and then coal.
- CO2 emissions will increase by 76% compared to the global average of 29%. However, energy use per capita will be just 21% of the global average.
- Energy production will grow by 47% and remains dominated by oil. Oil’s share, however, shrinks from 55% today to 38% in 2035 with natural gas rising to 35%.
- Africa currently exports a significant amount of is energy production, but growing domestic demand will reduce this ratio to 36% by 2035.
- The region will remain an important source of global oil and natural gas supply, accounting for 10% of global oil and 9% of natural gas production in 2035.
- Africa will remain an important exporter of natural gas, responsible for 23% in inter regional exports in 2035. It will also account for 10% of inter regional oil exports.
- The increase in combined oil and gas production in Africa between today and 2035 is bigger than in any of the BRIC countries.